Inflation in the New York City Metropolitan Area (2023)

Inflation in the New York City Metropolitan Area (1)

Economic and Policy Insights

April 21, 2022

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Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released new data indicating consumer prices grew by 8.5 percent nationally and 6.1 percent in the New York City Metropolitan Area (NYC metro area) in March 2022 compared to the same month a year ago.1 For over a decade following the Great Recession of 2008, inflation remained low, generally under 2 percent; however, price increases began to accelerate in the spring of 2021 and are now growing at the highest annual rate in 30 years in the NYC metro area.2

During this high inflationary period, increases in the NYC metro area have been less than those nationally and in other large metropolitan areas; nevertheless, price increases appear poised to outstrip earnings growth. Specifically, consumer costs in the NYC metro area have grown most steeply for energy, transportation, recreation and food. While some price increases may moderate in months to come, short-term expectations of persistent inflation remain high.3 Consumer spending habits have already shifted, and persistent inflation on essential household items, such as housing and food, will limit purchasing power and squeeze household budgets absent stronger wage growth.

The Basket of Goods

The most commonly used measure of household inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has historically provided a reliable benchmark for price changes across a fixed basket of goods in the nation, regions and metropolitan areas.4 The basket contains goods and services classified into the general categories of food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. The basket is developed from detailed spending information provided by individuals and families on the BLS’ Consumer Expenditure Survey. The survey provides a sense of local consumer spending habits, which look a bit different in each area.

As consumer spending habits differ by geography, so does the basket of goods. For example, housing comprises the largest share of consumer spending (39 percent in the NYC metro area), but the second largest expense varies. In the NYC metro area, it is food (13 percent); in the Los Angeles metro area, it is transportation (16 percent). These consumer spending habits are important for understanding how the CPI is calculated, since price changes are weighted by the importance of an item in the spending patterns of a particular regional population.5

NYC Metro Area Prices Rising More Slowly

Prior to the pandemic, the last major U.S. recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009. In the period since, inflation remained low: annual price increases averaged 1.6 percent compared to the same month in the prior year from January 2009 to December 2019. As shown in Figure 1, during this period, consumer price increases in the NYC metro area generally tracked the nation, with prices rising slightly more nationally (22 percent) than in the NYC metro area (20 percent).

FIGURE 1: Cumulative Increase in Consumer Prices fromJanuary2009toDecember2019, NYCMetroArea andU.S.

Inflation in the New York City Metropolitan Area (2)

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Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; OSC analysis

At the onset of the pandemic, consumer price increases slowed more nationally than in the NYC metro area, and began to rise beyond 2 percent nationally in March 2021 and in the NYC metro area in April 2021. As shown in Figure 2, consumer prices from the same month in the prior year have accelerated since then, but less so in the NYC metro area than nationally. In March 2022, the most recent month for which data are available, prices grew 8.5 percent nationally compared to 6.1 percent in the NYC metro area.

FIGURE 2: Growth in Consumer Prices from the Same Month in the Prior Year, NYCMetroAreaandU.S., January2020⁠to⁠March2022

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; OSC analysis

Slower Growth in NYC Metro Area Prices To Date

Prior to the pandemic, annual growth rates in overall prices in the NYC metro area lagged behind many other large metropolitan areas. At the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, prices had been rising more in the NYC metro area than in other large urban areas and the nation. As shown in Figure 3, by March 2021, prices grew more sharply in almost all other large metro areas for which BLS issued reports. One reason is housing prices, the largest component of the basket, grew more rapidly in more sprawled metros between 2020 and 2021, as demand for more space took hold during the pandemic. For the most recent year, price increases in other large metro areas ranged from 7.3 percent in Boston to as high as 10.2 percent in Tampa in March 2022—compared to 6.1 percent in the NYC metro area.

FIGURE 3: Annual Percent Changes in CPI, Select Metropolitan Areas and Nation, March2019toMarch2022

Metropolitan AreaMarch 2018-March2019March 2019-March2020March 2020-March2021March 2021-March2022
Tampa1.7%2.1%4.9%10.2%
Riverside2.8%2.3%3.6%10.0%
Denver1.4%2.2%1.6%9.1%
Dallas2.7%1.0%3.4%9.0%
Nation1.9%1.5%2.6%8.5%
Los Angeles2.7%1.9%2.2%8.5%
Minneapolis2.3%1.2%3.0%8.2%
San Diego2.2%1.8%4.1%7.9%
Chicago1.5%1.1%2.6%7.8%
Washington1.6%0.4%2.6%7.3%
Boston2.1%1.8%1.3%7.3%
New York1.6%2.0%2.0%6.1%

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; OSC analysis

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Energy prices were the fastest growing item across all metro areas between March 2021 and March 2022. As shown in Figure 4, prices for food grew faster in the NYC metro area than in many metro areas; on the other hand, prices for housing grew more slowly. Transportation prices rose by double digits across all metro areas for which BLS issued reports; reliance on automobiles, which experienced sharp price increases in new and used markets from supply chain issues, likely fueled this growth. In contrast, there is widespread reliance in the NYC metro area on mass transit systems, which did not experience similar increases and likely moderated the growth in transportation prices relative to other metros.

FIGURE 4: Annual Percent Change in Select CPI Categories, March2022

Inflation in the New York City Metropolitan Area (4)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; OSC analysis

Earnings Lag Price Growth

As shown in Figure 5, NYC metro area price increases in March 2022 were greatest for energy (32.7 percent over March 2021), followed by transportation (14.7 percent), recreation (8.3 percent) and food (8.0 percent). Prices for housing grew more slowly (4.1 percent); nevertheless, the increase was greater than in the year ending in March 2021 (1.0 percent), and growth has picked up in recent months.

More importantly, price increases in the last year may be outstripping earnings growth and squeezing household budgets. The most recent data through March 2022 are only available at the state level; while this is an imprecise comparison to the NYC metro area, it provides some insight given the disproportionate concentration of the state labor force in the downstate area. While prices grew 6.1 percent in March 2022 from the same month in the prior year, statewide hourly earnings grew merely 2.3 percent. The disparity suggests consumers may be losing their purchasing power.

FIGURE 5: Annual Percent Changes in Major CPI Categories in the NYC Metro Area, March2021toMarch2022

Inflation in the New York City Metropolitan Area (5)

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Note: Prices for recreation grew by 0.1 percent between March 2020 and March 2021.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; OSC analysis

Conclusion

Recent acceleration of inflation is attributed to a number of factors, including increased money supply from federal stimulus payments, supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Consumer spending habits have already shifted in response to growing prices, as fewer households are making large purchases related to vacations, home repairs, home appliances, furniture, and vehicles.6 However, price increases on essential items, such as food and housing, will be difficult to avoid. As consumer expectations adapt to persistent inflation, workers are likely to demand greater wages; this may, in turn, lead to greater price increases.

There are some signals inflation, at least on some items such as used cars, may be moderating. As the pandemic has abated, fiscal stimulus has tapered off and local supply chains have restarted. The Federal Reserve Board has also tightened monetary policy and begun raising interest rates. These forces are expected to ease the rise of inflation. However, global supply chain challenges and the effects of geopolitical instability on commodity prices are likely to continue to pressure prices upward. A tight labor market and increases in the cost of transporting items are also likely to remain. Changes to demand based on behavioral responses to a changing public health, economic and geopolitical environment may also have unanticipated effects on future sources of inflationary pressure. Tracking the rise of prices, and the consumer response to these changes, is necessary to understand New York State’s economic outlook and potential effects on its fiscal picture.

Endnotes

1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Consumer Price Index (CPI), March 2022, available at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf and https://www.bls.gov/regions/new‑york‑new‑jersey/news‑release/consumerpriceindex_newyorkarea.htm.

2 Annual rate refers to the change in prices in a given month compared to the same month in the prior year.

3 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Inflation Expectations, available at
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/inflexp‑1.

4 The U.S. BLS reports consumer price increases for the nation (U.S. city average), four regions, and 23 metropolitan areas (Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Philadelphia,Phoenix, Riverside, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle,St. Louis, Tampa, Urban Alaska, Urban Hawaii and Washington). Monthly data are provided for the four regions and the Chicago, New York and Los Angeles metropolitan areas; bimonthly data are provided for all other metropolitan areas.

5 Some basket items, including food and energy, can exhibit greater volatility in prices over time. Therefore, some analysts tend to prefer the Core CPI, which excludes these goods.

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6 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, January 2022.

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FAQs

How much is the inflation in NYC 2022? ›

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices in New York are 3,022.29% higher in 2022 versus 1914 (a $604.46 difference in value). Between 1914 and 2022: New York experienced an average inflation rate of 3.24% per year.

What is the inflation rate for 2022? ›

The Consumer Price Index increased 8.5 percent for the year ended March 2022, following a rise of 7.9 percent from February 2021 to February 2022.

Has the cost of living gone up in NY? ›

Did the Cost of Living in New York, NY increase in 2022? New York, NY area prices were up 1.6% from a year ago. The largest increases were found in Transportation, Food, and Housing.

What areas are the most affected by inflation? ›

Which U.S. Cities Have the Highest Inflation?
  • Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI (8.6%)National Average - 8.3%
  • Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (8.1%)
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (7.6%)
  • Urban Alaska (7.6%)
  • St. ...
  • New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (6.6%)
  • San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA (5.7%)

What is the cost of living increase for 2022 in New York? ›

The September 2022 COLA equals 3 percent, for a maximum annual increase of $540.00, or $45.00 per month before taxes.

What is the cost of living in New York City 2022? ›

The cost of living in New York City, NY is 26% higher than the state average and 95% higher than the national average. New York City, NY housing is 258% more expensive than the U.S average, while utilities are about 2% pricier.

What state has the highest inflation rate 2022? ›

Twenty-eight states saw inflation cost increases and 22 states saw inflation cost decreases. Monthly inflation costs increased the most in the states of Colorado ($29), Utah ($28), and Arizona and Nevada ($26 each).

Who benefits from inflation? ›

2. Equity and Commodity Investors. Despite low economic growth rates, investors can benefit from inflation if they hold the correct stocks and commodities in their portfolios. Equity investors: Putting your money in stocks is much better than holding cash during times of high inflation.

What is the highest inflation rate in US history? ›

Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.29 percent from 1914 until 2022, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

What salary do you need to live comfortably in NYC? ›

Living in NYC will require an annual salary of anywhere between 40K-100K after taxes. Of course, these figures vary depending on your living expenses, children (if any), and other monthly bills related to entertainment, health insurance, or transportation.

What is a livable salary in New York? ›

Living Wage Calculation for New York County, New York
1 ADULT
0 Children2 Children
Living Wage$25.42$53.00
Poverty Wage$6.19$10.56
Minimum Wage$15.00$15.00

What is a good salary NYC? ›

A good salary in New York, NY is anything over $54,000. That's because the median income in New York is $54,000, which means if you earn more than that you're earning more than 50% of the people living in New York. The average salary in New York is $64,741. A good hourly wage in New York is $25.96 per hour.

Where should I move during inflation? ›

Real estate

Real estate traditionally does well during periods of higher inflation, as the value of a property can increase. This means your landlord can charge you more for rent, which in turn increases their income so it is on pace with the rising inflation.

Who gets hit hardest by inflation? ›

Where is inflation worst? The worst inflation numbers come from Turkey, with their consumer price index (or CPI) at 80%. A close second is Argentina, with a rate of 78.5%.

Which states are getting hit hardest by inflation? ›

Raw Data
StateScore
1Louisiana48.2
2Florida50.2
3Tennessee50.3
4Georgia51.3
10 more rows
20 Jun 2022

Has the cost of living gone up in 2022? ›

Over the 12 months ended June 2022, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 9.1 percent.

What is the cost of living increase for 2023? ›

Social Security's cost-of-living adjustment for 2023 is the biggest in more than four decades.
...
How much will Social Security increase in 2023?
CategoryAverage monthly increaseAverage 2023 check
Senior couple, both receiving benefits$238$2,972
4 more rows
21 hours ago

What is the current cost of living increase per year? ›

The annual inflation rate for the United States is 7.7% for the 12 months ended October 2022 after rising 8.2% previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data published Nov. 10. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on Dec. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Is it better to rent or buy 2022 in NYC? ›

Renting offers you the flexibility you need if, say, you switch jobs or are always on the move. When you buy a home, you usually expect to live there for a long time, but renting is a better choice if you have to keep moving once every couple of years, or if you're not quite sure where you want to settle down.

What is the average rent in New York City 2022? ›

As of November 19, 2022, the average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in New York, NY is $3,750. This is a 17% increase compared to the previous year.

How much do you need to make a month to live in NYC? ›

What Is the Average Cost of Living in New York? The average cost of living in New York per month for a family of four is $ 7,800, and that for a single person is $ 5,300.

What is the best state to live in USA 2022? ›

According to the report, the best state to live in the U.S. is Massachusetts. That isn't the only northern state to appear near the top of the rankings. New Jersey, New York, Idaho, New Hampshire, Wyoming, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all made the top 10.

Which city has the highest inflation rate in the US? ›

Ten cities with the worst inflation rates:
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.: 92.11.
  • Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.: 87.59.
  • Tampa-St. ...
  • Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.: 72.84.
  • Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas: 69.2.
  • Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.: 68.71.
  • Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.: 67.12.
19 Sept 2022

What US state is the best to live in? ›

The personal finance website has come up with a ranked list of the top 20 best states to live in for 2022. Here are the results! The top state is Massachusetts, which ranked first in the nation for education and health, fourth for safety, sixth for quality of life, and 10th for its economy.

Will inflation cause housing crash? ›

At the end of the day, buyers are going to feel inflation's impact, but it's unlikely to cause a crash or any drastic shift in the market. If you're hoping to buy a home and want to gauge how inflation and higher rates will influence your goals, get in touch with a mortgage professional in your area.

Do house prices increase with inflation? ›

How Does Inflation Affect Property Value? In terms of the housing market, inflation causes house prices to increase over and above where the average might sit due to simple supply and demand. This often leads to many potential buyers being priced out of buying a property.

Does inflation make the rich richer? ›

This happens because inflation hurts the lower incomes but actually enriches the higher incomes. Imagine a family making $30,000 with no assets seeing a 5 percent annual inflation rate. They see their expense rise by 5 percent (losing $1,800 in buying power due to the inflation) and have no way of making it up.

When was America's worst inflation? ›

In 2022 in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation reached 8.5%, its highest rate since 1982.

Why is inflation so high 2022? ›

BLS data showed that inflation eased on July to 8.5% from the 40 year peak reached on June at 9.1%. Annual inflation increased to 8.3% in August 2022, in part due to rising grocery prices. In September the Fed increased the interest for a fifth time in the year reaching a 14 year high.

What was the worst inflation in history? ›

Due to the reduced tax base, the government resorted to printing money, and in 1923 inflation in Hungary reached 98% per month. Between the end of 1945 and July 1946, Hungary went through the highest inflation ever recorded. In 1944, the highest banknote value was 1,000 P.

What's a middle class salary in NYC? ›

What Is the Average Salary in New York City?
Income Figures for New York City
TypeIncome Amount
Average Income$107,000
Median Income$67,046
Per Capita Income$41,625
31 Aug 2022

How do people afford rent in NYC? ›

Most NYC landlords use a 40x rent rule, so your annual salary will need to be 40x the monthly rent to qualify for most apartments. For example, if you wanted to rent a $1,500 per month apartment you should make $60,000 a year.

What is the average cost of a house in New York City? ›

Housing costs in NYC

If you're looking to buy a home rather than rent, don't expect to save money: Real estate prices in New York City are also among the most expensive in the nation. The median asking price for a home in NYC hit $995,000 in April 2022, according to StreetEasy — the highest it has been since 2019.

What is a fair wage in NYC? ›

General Minimum Wage Rate Schedule
Location12/31/1612/31/19
NYC - Big Employers (of 11 or more)$11.00
NYC - Small Employers (10 or less)$10.50$15.00
Long Island & Westchester$10.00$13.00
Remainder of New York State Workers$9.70$11.80

Can you live in NYC on 40k a year? ›

If you can land a rent stabilized/rent controlled apartment, you can live completely comfortably on even 40k a year. I only make between 30k - 35k a year, by choice, because I choose to only work about 25 hours a week - and I'm completely content. I pay under 1k a month for rent + utilities, Internet, cable.

Can you live in New York on 50k? ›

I definitely think you can live comfortably on a salary of $50,000, even in New York City,” says Haskins. “It's an expensive city, but I think if you know where your money is going and you recognize what your priorities are, it's totally doable.”

What is considered upper class in NYC? ›

And upper class income is double the median. That puts the middle class income range in NYC at $45,331 to $135,994. The upper middle class income is at the higher end of the range say from $115,000 to $135,994. And anything above an income level of $135,994 will put you in the upper class in New York City.

What is upper middle class in NY? ›

In NYC , a combined income husband and wife of 500k is the start of upper middle class. 500k *1-40% tax rate - 310,000 k per year or 20k a year on restaurants, 20k for groceries, 50k for nanny, 60,000 for rent, 40k for school for two kids private/cheap private.

What is the most popular job in New York? ›

Detailed List Of The Most Common Jobs In New York, NY
RankJob TitleCount
1Internship67,725
2Sales Associate47,015
3Cashier41,533
4Administrative Assistant36,045
87 more rows
24 May 2022

Should you buy property during high inflation? ›

When inflation is high, properties in prime locations tend to hold their value better than those in less desirable areas. Type of Property. The type of property you're considering is also important. Different types of properties appreciate at different rates during periods of high inflation.

Are houses cheaper during inflation? ›

Housing prices rise, so real estate investors see appreciation. Upward pressure on prices means that longtime owners have recently seen a steep rise in the value of their assets. Also, mortgage payments do not change over time, but money paid back in the future is worth less. Inflation has also driven up rents.

Is property safe from inflation? ›

Property is an inflation hedge but only a weak one. It is better against unanticipated inflation than anticipated inflation. Industrial sector is the best hedge and the office sector the worst. Equities offer a better hedge against shocks to the price level but not against core inflation.

How do you survive a high inflation rate? ›

How to hedge against inflation
  1. Reassess your spending habits. If inflation is making it difficult to stay within budget, take a moment to reassess your cash flow and where it's going. ...
  2. Take on new debt sparingly (and avoid variable rates) ...
  3. Become a sale shopper. ...
  4. Maximize loyalty and reward programs. ...
  5. Be strategic with savings.
19 Oct 2022

How do people survive high inflation? ›

Basic strategies to survive inflation involve spending or saving less or earning more. If you're retired, surviving inflation means using more of your savings — assuming that's something that won't leave you destitute when you're older — or finding an acceptable side hustle.

What products sell well during inflation? ›

Consumer staples stocks mostly do well because price increases are passed on to consumers. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are risky choices but tend to perform well under inflationary pressure.

Where should I move to avoid inflation? ›

11 Places Where Cost of Living Is Still Low, Despite Inflation
  • Johnson City — and Tennessee, in General. ...
  • Alabama — Particularly the Auburn Area. ...
  • Fayetteville, Arkansas. ...
  • Cedar Park, Texas. ...
  • Pottstown — and Small-Town Pennsylvania Overall. ...
  • Mid-Size Cities Like Buffalo, New York. ...
  • Savannah, Georgia. ...
  • The Chicago Suburbs.
24 Aug 2022

Who is hurt least by inflation? ›

In summary: Inflation will hurt those who keep cash savings and workers with fixed wages. Inflation will benefit those with large debts who, with rising prices, find it easier to pay back their debts.

What cities have the most inflation? ›

Cities Where Inflation is Rising The Most
Overall RankMSATotal Score
1Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ100.00
2Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL79.24
3Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI77.62
4Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA76.78
18 more rows
10 Nov 2022

What is the expected UK inflation rate for 2022? ›

In 2022 the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom is expected to reach an annual rate of 9.1 percent before falling to 7.4 percent in 2023, and then 0.6 percent in 2024. During the provided time period which shows outturn, the inflation rate was at it's highest in 2011 when it reached 4.5 percent.

What is the current UK CPI rate for 2022? ›

The UK inflation rate reached a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022, compared with 10.1 percent in September. Surging housing costs contributed the most towards inflation in the most recent month and have increased by 26.6 percent since last year.

Is 2022 a recession? ›

According to the NBER's definition of recession—a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months—we were not in a recession in the summer of 2022.

What is the inflation rate in China? ›

Stats
Value from Last Month2.80%
Change from Last Month-25.00%
Value from 1 Year Ago1.50%
Change from 1 Year Ago40.00%
FrequencyMonthly
3 more rows

What is the inflation rate expected to be for the next 5 years? ›

US Expected Change in Inflation Rates: Next 5 Years is at 3.00%, compared to 2.90% last month and 3.00% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.20%.

What is inflation today in USA? ›

US Inflation Rate is at 7.75%, compared to 8.20% last month and 6.22% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.27%.

What is the US inflation rate? ›

The annual inflation rate for the United States is 7.7% for the 12 months ended October 2022 after rising 8.2% previously, according to U.S. Labor Department data published Nov. 10. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on Dec. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

What is Germany's current inflation rate? ›

Current Germany inflation rate

The Consumer Price Index for Germany is 122.2 for the month of October 2022. The inflation rate year over year is 10.4% (compared to 10.0% for the previous month). Inflation from September 2022 to October 2022 was 0.9%.

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